Major Factors Influencing Landslide Occurrence along a Forest Road Determined Using Structural Equation Model Analysis and Logistic Regression Analysis

Hyeong-Sin Kim; Seong-Woo Moon; Yong-Seok Seo

doi:10.9720/kseg.2022.4.585

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2022 Vol.32, Issue 4 Preview Page Next Page

Research Article

Major Factors Influencing Landslide Occurrence along a Forest Road Determined Using Structural Equation Model Analysis and Logistic Regression Analysis 구조방정식과 로지스틱 회귀분석을 이용한 임도비탈면 산사태의 주요 영향인자 선정

31 December 2022. pp. 585-596

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Abstract

This study determined major factors influencing landslide occurrence along a forest road near Sangsan village, Sancheok-myeon, Chungju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, South Korea. Within a 2 km radius of the study area, landslides occur intensively during periods of heavy rainfall (August 2020). This makes study of the area advantageous, as it allows examination of the influence of only geological and tomographic factors while excluding the effects of rainfall and vegetation. Data for 82 locations (37 experiencing landslides and 45 not) were obtained from geological surveys, laboratory tests, and geo-spatial analysis. After some data preprocessing (e.g., error filtering, minimum-maximum normalization, and multicollinearity), structural equation model (SEM) and logistic regression (LR) analyses were conducted. These showed the regolith thickness, porosity, and saturated unit weight to be the factors most influential of landslide risk in the study area. The sums of the influence magnitudes of these factors are 71% in SEM and 83% in LR.

Keywords

forest road slope

major influential factor on landslide

multicollinearity

structural equation model

logistic regression

본 연구는 충주시 산척면 상산마을 일대 임도 비탈면을 대상으로 지질 및 지형 인자 중 산사태 발생에 영향력이 큰 인자를 선정하기 위하여 수행되었다. 연구지역은 집중호우 기간에 반경 2 km 이내에서 집중적으로 다수의 산사태가 발생했기 때문에 동일 강우조건 및 식생 조건으로 가정할 수 있다. 따라서 이들의 영향을 배제한 상태로 지형적 요인 및 토층의 물리 ‧ 역학적 특성과 관련된 인자들만의 영향도를 파악할 수 있는 지역이다. 산사태 발생지점 37개소와 미발생 지점 45개소를 대상으로 현장조사, 실내시험, 지형 공간분석 등을 통해 토층의 물리 ‧ 역학적 자료 및 비탈면의 지형 자료를 수집하였다. 수집된 자료를 대상으로 이상치 제거, 최소-최대 정규화, 다중공선성 진단의 순으로 전처리를 수행하였고, 9개의 독립변수를 선정한 후 구조방정식 모형분석과 로지스틱 회귀분석을 실시하였다. 통계학적 분석 결과, 토층두께, 공극률 및 포화단위중량이 연구지역의 산사태 발생에 크게 영향을 미친 것으로 파악되며, 상기 3개 인자의 영향도 합계는 구조방정식 모형분석에서 전체의 71%, 로지스틱 회귀분석에서 전체의 83%를 차지하는 것으로 분석되었다.

키워드

임도비탈면

산사태 주요 영향인자

다중공선성

구조방정식 모형분석

로지스틱 회귀분석

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Information

Publisher :Korean Society of Engineering Geology
Publisher(Ko) :대한지질공학회
Journal Title :The Journal of Engineering Geology
Journal Title(Ko) :지질공학
Volume : 32
No :4
Pages :585-596
Received Date : 2022-12-01
Accepted Date : 2022-12-14
DOI :https://doi.org/10.9720/kseg.2022.4.585

The Journal of Engineering Geology ISSN:1226-5268(Print) 2287-7169(Online) 지질공학

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