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2024 Vol.34, Issue 4 Preview Page

Research Article

Assessment of Drought Vulnerability due to Climate Change in Gangwon State

기후변화에 따른 강원지역 가뭄 취약성 평가

Youngyun Park1
,
Heejung Kim2
,
Youngho Park3*
박 영윤1
,
김 희정2
,
박 영호3*
1Research Professor, Research Institute for Earth Resources, Kangwon National University
2Professor, Department of Geology, Kangwon National University
3Professor, Department of Big Data Application, Hannam University
1강원대학교 지구자원연구소 연구교수
2강원대학교 지질학과 교수
3한남대학교 빅데이터응용학과 교수
*Corresponding Author
31 December 2024. pp. 577-594
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Abstract

We assessed drought vulnerability in the Gangwon area using predicted monthly average temperatures and monthly precipitation under the RCP2-4.5 and RCP5-8.5 scenarios for 2025~2050. Over the past 10 years, the average annual temperature in the Gangwon area was 11.7°C and the annual precipitation was 1,331 mm. According to climate predictions for 2025~2050 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the average monthly temperature in the Gangwon area is expected to increase by 0.2~0.6°C, with increases observed in all areas. Annual precipitation is expected to increase by 3~110 mm, but is predicted to decrease in some regions such as Cheorwon and Pyeongchang. For 2025~2050, the possibility of flash drought is expected to be high due to the increase in the average monthly temperature in the Gangwon area, and it was predicted that a hydrological drought would occur during the period corresponding to 1.9~33.0% due to the decrease in monthly precipitation. The drought risk assessment indicates a relatively high risk of drought in Cheorwon, Hwacheon, Donghae, and Samcheok. The drought risk is not significantly different between the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.

Keywords
SSP scenario
standard precipitation index (SPI)
drought vulnerability assessment
flash drought
hydrological drought

이 연구는 2025~2050년까지 RCP2-4.5와 RCP5-8.5 시나리오로 예측한 강원지역의 월평균 기온과 월강수량 자료를 이용하여 기후변화 특성을 분석하고, 가뭄발생 가능성을 평가하기 위해서 수행하였다. 최근 10년 동안 강원지역의 연평균 기온은 11.7°C이고 연강수량은 1,331 mm이다. SSP2-4.5와 SSP5-8.5 시나리오로 2025~2050년까지 예측된 기후자료에 따르면 강원지역의 월평균 기온은 약 0.2~0.6°C 상승하고 모든 지역에서 월평균 기온이 증가하는 것으로 예측되었다. 강원지역의 연강수량은 3~110 mm 증가하지만 철원, 평창 등 일부 지역에서 감소할 것으로 예상된다. 강원지역은 향후 월평균 기온의 증가로 인해 급성가뭄의 발생가능성은 커지고 월강수량의 감소와 편차로 인해 1.9~33.0%에 해당하는 기간에 수문학적 가뭄의 발생 가능성이 있는 것으로 평가되었다. 가뭄발생 가능성 평가 결과, 철원, 화천, 동해 및 삼척에서 가뭄발생 가능성이 상대적으로 높게 평가되었다. SSP2-4.5와 SSP5-8.5 시나리오에 따른 가뭄발생 가능성은 뚜렷한 차이를 보이지 않는다. 이번 연구의 결과는 강원지역의 가뭄발생 특성을 이해하는데 도움을 줄 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

키워드
SSP 시나리리오
표준강수지수(SPI)
가뭄 취약성 평가
급성가뭄
수문학적 가문
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Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Engineering Geology
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한지질공학회
  • Journal Title :The Journal of Engineering Geology
  • Journal Title(Ko) :지질공학
  • Volume : 34
  • No :4
  • Pages :577-594
  • Received Date : 2024-11-19
  • Revised Date : 2024-12-12
  • Accepted Date : 2024-12-13
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.9720/kseg.2024.4.577
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