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Research Article

A Study on Influence Factors for Tunnel Collapse Risk Analysis using Delphi Method

델파이 기법을 활용한 터널 붕괴 위험도 분석을 위한 영향인자 도출에 관한 연구

Jeong Heum Kim1
,
Chang Yong Kim1
,
Seung Soo Lee3
,
Jun Hwan Lee2*
김 정흠1
,
김 창용1
,
이 승수3
,
이 준환2*
1Korea Institue of Civil Engineering and Building Technology
2Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University
3Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University
1한국건설기술연구원
2연세대학교 건설환경공학과
3한양대학교 건설환경공학과
* 교신저자* Corresponding Author
June 2017. pp. 165-172
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Abstract

This research aims to define influence factors to perform an optimized section design and evaluate tunnel collapse risk duringconstruction using Delphi technique. A total of five upper classification systems were constructed through literature review, per-vious research analysis, and brainstorming of expert group for establishing influence factors. The 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Delphi surveyprocess was proceeded by panel group which is consisted 21 experts to prevent errors and bias in the expert judgement process. InDelphi 1st survey, a total of 22 influence factors candidates were derived through open-ended questionnaire. In Delphi 2nd survey,questionnaire was proceeded based on 7-point Likert scale method. In order to verify the validity, CVR (Content Validity Ration)analysis was performed to exclude inappropriate candidates. In the 3rd survey, verification of influence factors was proceeded oncemore with the result of 2nd survey, and lastly, a total of 14 influence factors was derived by CVR and COV (Content ValidityRation) analysis for response of experts.

Keywords
Tunnel
Delphi technique
Influence factor
Tunnel collapse risk
CVR (Content Validity Ration)
COV (Coefficientof Variation)

본 연구는 델파이 기법을 활용하여 최적화 단면 설계 도출 및 시공중 터널 붕괴위험도 평가를 위해 필요한 평가영향인자를정립하는 것을 목표로 하였다. 평가영향인자 정립은 문헌조사, 선행연구 및 전문가 집단의 브레인스토밍과정을 통하여 총 5개의 상위분류체계를 구축하였다. 21명의 전문가 패널을 구성하여 총 1, 2, 3차의 델파이 조사 과정을 통해 전문가 판단과정에서의 오류 및 편향을 방지하여 신뢰성을 향상시켰다. 델파이 1차 조사에서는 개방형 설문조사를 통해서 각 전문가 패널의 의견을 수렴하여 총 22개의 평가영향인자 후보군을 도출하였다. 델파이 2차 조사에서는 수집된 총 22개의 평가영향인자 후보군을대상으로 리커트 7점 척도를 기반으로 중요도 설문을 수행하였으며 타당성 검증을 위해 CVR (Content Validity Ration)분석을수행하여 부적합한 후보군을 제외하였다. 마지막으로 3차 조사에서는 2차 조사에서 도출된 결과를 가지고 재조사를 수행하였으며, 최종적으로 전문가 답변에 대한 CVR 및 COV (Coefficient of Variation)분석을 수행하여 총 14개의 평가영향인자를 도출하였다.

키워드
터널
델파이 조사기법
영향인자
터널붕괴위험도
CVR
COV
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Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Engineering Geology
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한지질공학회
  • Journal Title :The Journal of Engineering Geology
  • Journal Title(Ko) :지질공학
  • Volume : 27
  • No :2
  • Pages :165-172
  • Received Date : 2017-06-09
  • Revised Date : 2017-06-15
  • Accepted Date : 2017-06-19
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.9720/kseg.2017.2.165
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