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2024 Vol.34, Issue 3 Preview Page

Research Article

Assessing Landslide Risk in Relation to Rainfall Frequency and Duration under the SSP5-8.5 Climate Change Scenario

SSP5-8.5 기후변화 시나리오를 적용하여 강우재현빈도-강우지속시간에 따른 토사재해 위험도 변화 분석

Man-Il Kim1*
,
Jang-Gyeong Kim2
,
Young-Douk Joung3
,
Kyeong-Su Kim4*
김 만일1*
,
김 장경2
,
정 영덕3
,
김 경수4*
1Principal Researcher, Engineering Bushiness Division, National Forestry Cooperative Federation
2CEO, Bayesian Works Co., Ltd.
3Head of Division, Engineering Bushiness Division, National Forestry Cooperative Federation
4Principal Researcher, Geologic Hazards Division, Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources
1산림조합중앙회 엔지니어링사업본부 책임연구원
2(주)베이지안웍스 대표이사
3산림조합중앙회 엔지니어링사업본부 본부장
4한국지질자원연구원 지질재해연구본부 책임연구원
*Corresponding Author
30 September 2024. pp. 459-471
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Abstract

Landslide risk is influenced by internal factors such as terrain, geology, soil composition, and forest cover, and external factors such as rainfall and seismic activity. In particular, changes in rainfall patterns due to climate change and changes in terrain due to urban sprawl result in increased landslide risk, both directly and indirectly. This study analyzes internal factors that influence landslide risk using existing spatial data and examines changes in rainfall under the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario. Rainfall intensity was evaluated across different frequencies and durations, and the landslide risk was assessed by applying rainfall infiltration models to mountain slopes. The analysis reveals that with increasing rainfall duration (1, 6, 12, 18, and 24 h) for an event with a recurrence interval of 10 yr rainfall intensity decreases. However, for shorter rainfall durations (1 h), the intensity increases with the event frequency (10, 20, 50, and 100 yr). Infiltration analysis further shows that with prolonged rainfall, the proportion of areas with a safety factor of 1.3 or higher decreases, thereby raising the landslide risk.

Keywords
landslide risk
climate change scenario (SSP5-8.5)
rainfall frequency
rainfall duration
rainfall intensity

토사재해의 발생인자는 지형, 지질, 토질, 산림 등과 같은 내적 인자와 강우, 지진 등과 같은 외적 인자로 구분해 볼 수 있다. 특히, 기후변화 영향으로 인한 강우사상 변화, 생활권 확장에 따른 지형 변화 등은 직간접적으로 토사재해 발생 위험성을 증가시키는 주요 요인으로 볼 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 내적 인자는 기존의 공간정보 자료를 활용하고, 외적 인자인 강우사상 변화를 기후변화 시나리오 SSP5-8.5인 극한조건을 적용하여 강우재현빈도별 강우지속시간에 따른 강우강도를 분석하고, 산지사면 내 강우 침투해석 조건을 적용하여 토사재해 위험도를 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 강우재현빈도(10년)에 대한 강우지속시간(1, 6, 12, 18, 24시간)이 길어질수록 강우강도는 감소하는 것으로 나타났으나, 강우재현빈도별(10, 20, 50, 100년)에 대한 강우지속시간 1시간의 강우강도는 점진적으로 증가하였다. 이를 적용한 침투해석 분석 결과에서는 강우지속시간이 길어질수록 기준안전율 1.3 이상의 면적비율이 감소하면서 토사재해 위험도가 커지는 것을 알 수 있다.

키워드
토사재해 위험도
기후변화 시나리오(SSP5-8.5)
강우재현빈도
강우지속시간
강우강도
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Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Engineering Geology
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한지질공학회
  • Journal Title :The Journal of Engineering Geology
  • Journal Title(Ko) :지질공학
  • Volume : 34
  • No :3
  • Pages :459-471
  • Received Date : 2024-09-24
  • Accepted Date : 2024-09-28
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.9720/kseg.2024.3.459
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