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Research Article

A Random Walk Model for Estimating Debris Flow Damage Range

랜덤워크 모델을 이용한 토석류 산사태 피해범위 산정기법 제안

Young-Suk Song1*
,
Min-Sun Lee2
송 영석1*
,
이 민선2
1Principal Researcher, Geologic Environment Division, Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources
2Deputy Group Manager, Disaster Prevention System & Analysis Department, Disaster Prevention System and Analysis Department, Hydro Technology Institute Co., Ltd., Japan
1한국지질자원연구원 지질재해연구본부 책임연구원
2하이드로종합기술연구소 재난방재시스템 및 해석 그룹 서브 그룹매니저
*Corresponding Author
31 March 2023. pp. 201-211
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Abstract

This study investigated the damage range of the debris flow to predict the amount of collapsed soil in a landslide event. The height of the collapsed slope and the distance traveled by the collapsed soil were used to predict the total trajectory distance using a random walk model. Debris flow trajectory probabilities were calculated through 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations and were used to calculate the damage range as measured from the landslide scar to its toe. Compiled information on debris flows that occurred in the Cheonwangbong area of Mt. Jirisan was used to test the accuracy of the proposed random walk model in estimating the damage range of debris flow. Results of the comparison reveal that the proposed model shows reasonable accuracy in estimating the damage range of debris flow and that using 10 m × 10 m cells allows the damage range to be reproduced with satisfactory precision.

Keywords
debris flow
collapsed soil
trajectory distance
random walk model
damage range

본 연구에서는 산사태 발생시 붕괴토사량을 산정하기 위하여 산사태 발생면적과 붕괴토사량의 상관관계를 활용하고, 붕괴토사량의 총 이동거리를 예측하기 위하여 붕괴토사량과 붕괴사면의 높이 및 붕괴토사의 도달거리를 활용하였다. 그리고 토석류의 이동경로를 예측하기 위하여 붕괴토사량의 유동 및 퇴적특성을 경사도의 인자로 단순화시킨 랜텀워크 모델을 적용하였다. 산사태 발생지점에서 이동경로 및 피해범위를 산정하기 위하여 토석류 이동 확률계산을 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 통하여 10,000회 반복적으로 수행하였다. 이때 계산된 다양한 랜텀워크의 궤적을 피해영역으로 제시하였다. 제안된 랜텀워크 모델을 이용한 산사태 피해범위 산정기법의 정확도를 확인하기 위하여 지리산 천왕봉 일대에서 발생된 산사태 발생이력을 적용하였다. 제안된 모델의 적용성을 검토한 결과 비교적 정확하게 피해범위를 산정하는 것으로 나타났으며, 10 m × 10 m 크기의 셀을 활용하는 것이 실제 피해범위에 대한 정확한 재현이 가능한 것으로 확인되었다.

키워드
토석류 산사태
붕괴토사량
이동거리
랜덤워크 모델
피해범위
References
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Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Engineering Geology
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한지질공학회
  • Journal Title :The Journal of Engineering Geology
  • Journal Title(Ko) :지질공학
  • Volume : 33
  • No :1
  • Pages :201-211
  • Received Date : 2023-03-09
  • Revised Date : 2023-03-28
  • Accepted Date : 2023-03-28
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.9720/kseg.2023.1.201
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