All Issue

2022 Vol.32, Issue 1 Preview Page

Research Article

A Review of Quantitative Landslide Susceptibility Analysis Methods Using Physically Based Modelling

물리사면모델을 활용한 정량적 산사태 취약성 분석기법 리뷰

Hyuck-Jin Park1*
,
Jung-Hyun Lee2
박 혁진1*
,
이 정현2
1Professor, Department of Energy Resources and Geosystem Engineering, Sejong University
2Post-Doctoral Fellow, Department of Energy Resources and Geosystem Engineering, Sejong University
1세종대학교 지구자원시스템공학과 교수
2세종대학교 지구자원시스템공학과 박사후 연구원
*Corresponding Author
31 March 2022. pp. 27-40
PDF XML Citation
Abstract

산사태는 매년 전 세계적으로 상당한 규모의 인명 및 재산 피해를 발생시키고 있다. 따라서 이러한 산사태를 정확하게 예측하는 것은 매우 중요한 일이며 많은 연구자들이 다양한 접근방식을 활용하여 많은 연구를 수행하여 왔다. 산사태 예측과 관련된 분석은 고려되는 영향인자들과 분석되는 위험성의 예측 수준 그리고 산사태 발생 시 예상되는 피해에 대한 고려에 따라 산사태 취약성 분석, 산사태 위험성 분석 그리고 산사태 리스크 분석으로 구분된다. 이들 분석 중 현재 획득 가능한 관련 자료의 수준을 감안하여 국내외적으로 산사태 취약성 분석이 주로 수행되고 있다. 산사태 취약성 분석은 다양한 정성적 및 정량적 분석기법이 적용되어 왔으며 최근 들어서는 예측성능이 우수한 것으로 알려진 물리사면모델을 활용한 분석기법이 폭넓게 사용되고 있다. 특히 물리사면모델은 산사태 발생 이력의 존재여부와 상관없이 적용이 가능하고 산사태 발생 프로세스를 재현할 수 있다는 장점을 가지고 있다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 물리사면모델을 활용한 취약성 분석기법에 대하여 검토해 보았다.

키워드
산사태 취약성 분석
물리사면모델
정상류
부정류
확률론적 해석

Every year landslides cause serious casualties and property damages around the world. As the accurate prediction of landslides is important to reduce the fatalities and economic losses, various approaches have been developed to predict them. Prediction methods can be divided into landslide susceptibility analysis, landslide hazard analysis and landslide risk analysis according to the type of the conditioning factors, the predicted level of the landslide dangers, and whether the expected consequence cased by landslides were considered. Landslide susceptibility analyses are mainly based on the available landslide data and consequently, they predict the likelihood of landslide occurrence by considering factors that can induce landslides and analyzing the spatial distribution of these factors. Various qualitative and quantitative analysis techniques have been applied to landslide susceptibility analysis. Recently, quantitative susceptibility analyses have predominantly employed the physically based model due to high predictive capacity. This is because the physically based approaches use physical slope model to analyze slope stability regardless of prior landslide occurrence. This approach can also reproduce the physical processes governing landslide occurrence. This review examines physically based landslide susceptibility analysis approaches.

Keywords
landslide susceptibility analysis
physically based model
steady state flow model
transient flow model
probabilistic analysis
References
1
Ali, A., Huang, J., Lyamin, A.V., Sloan, S.W., Griffiths, D.V., Cassidy, M.J., Li, J.H., 2014, Simplified quantitative risk assessment of rainfall-induced landslides modelled by infinite slopes, Engineering Geology, 179, 102-116. 10.1016/j.enggeo.2014.06.024
2
Alvioli, M., Guzzetti, F., Rossi, M., 2014, Scaling properties of rainfall induced landslides predicted by a physically based model, Geomorphology, 213, 38-47. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.12.039
3
Apip, Takara, K., Yamashiki, Y., Sassa, K., Ibrahim, A.B., Fukuoka, H., 2010, A distributed hydrological-geotechnical model using satellite-derived rainfall estimates for shallow landslide prediction system at a catchment scale, Landslides, 7, 237-258. 10.1007/s10346-010-0214-z
4
Arnone, E., Noto, L.V., Lepore, C., Bras, R.L., 2011, Physically-based and distributed approach to analyze rainfall-triggered landslides at watershed scale, Geomorphology, 133, 121-131. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.03.019
5
Baecher, G.B., Christian, J.T., 2003, Reliability and statistics in geotechnical engineering, Wiley, New York, 618p.
6
Baum, R.L., Coe, J.A., Godt, J.W., Harp, E.L., Reid, M.E., Savage, W.Z., Schulz, W.H., Brien, D.L., Chleborad, A.F., McKenna, J.P., Michael, J.A., 2005, Regional landslide-hazard assessment for Seattle, Washington, USA, Landslides, 2, 266-279. 10.1007/s10346-005-0023-y
7
Baum, R.L., Savage, W.Z., Godt, J.W., 2002, TRIGRS - a fortran program for transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 02-0424, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2002/ofr-02-424. 10.3133/ofr02424
8
Beven, K.J., Kirkby, M.J., 1979, A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology, Hydrological Sciences Bulletin, 24, 43-69. 10.1080/02626667909491834
9
Bordoni, M., Meisina, C., Valentino, R., Bittelli, M., Chersich, S., 2015, Site-specific to local-scale shallow landslides triggering zones assessment using TRIGRS, Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences, 15, 1025-1050. 10.5194/nhess-15-1025-2015
10
Chen, C.Y., Chen, T.C., Yu, F.C., Lin, S.C., 2005, Analysis of time-varying rainfall infiltration induced landslide, Environmental Geology, 48, 466-479. 10.1007/s00254-005-1289-z
11
Chowdhury, R., Flentje, P., Bhattacharya, G., 2010, Geotechnical slope analysis, CRC, New York, 738p. 10.1201/9780203864203
12
Corominas, J., van Westen, C., Frattini, P., Cascini, L., Malet, J.P., Fotopoulou, S., Catani, F., Van Den Eeckhaut, M., Mavrouli, O., Agliardi, F., Pitilakis, K., Winter, M.G., Pastor, M., Ferlisi, S., Tofani, V., Hervas, J., Smith, J.T., 2014, Recommendations for the quantitative analysis of landslide risk, Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 73, 209-263. 10.1007/s10064-013-0538-8
13
Crosta, G.B., Frattini, P., 2003, Distributed modeling of shallow landslides triggered by intense rainfall, Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 3, 81-93. 10.5194/nhess-3-81-2003
14
Dal Sasso, S.F., Sole, A., Pascale, S., Sdao, F., Bateman Pinzón, A., Medina, V., 2014, Assessment methodology for the prediction of landslide dam hazard, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 14, 557-567. 10.5194/nhess-14-557-2014
15
D’Amato Avanzi, G., Falaschi, F., Giannecchini, R., Puccinelli, A., 2009, Soil slip susceptibility assessment using mechanical-hydrological approach and GIS techniques: An application in the Apuan Alps (Italy), Natural Hazards, 50, 591-603. 10.1007/s11069-009-9357-4
16
Fell, R., Corominas, J., Bonnard, C., Cascini, L., Leroi, E., Savage, W.Z., 2008, Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning for land use planning, Engineering Geology, 102, 85-98. 10.1016/j.enggeo.2008.03.022
17
Fernandes, N.F., Guimarães, R.F., Gomes, R.A., Vieira, B.C., Montgomery, D.R., Greenberg, H., 2004, Topographic controls of landslides in Rio de Janeiro: Field evidence and modeling, Catena, 55, 163-181. 10.1016/S0341-8162(03)00115-2
18
Frattini, P., Crosta, G.B., Fusi, N., Dal Negro, P., 2004, Shallow landslides in pyroclastic soils: A distributed modeling approach for hazard assessment, Engineering Geology, 73, 277-295. 10.1016/j.enggeo.2004.01.009
19
Godt, J.W., Baum, R.L., Savage, W.Z., Salciarini, D., Schulz, W.H., Harp, E.L., 2008, Transient deterministic shallow landslide modeling: Requirements for susceptibility and hazard assessments in a GIS framework, Engineering Geology, 102, 214-226. 10.1016/j.enggeo.2008.03.019
20
Gorsevski, P.V., Gessler, P.E., Boll, J., Elliot, W.J., Foltz, R.B., 2006, Spatially and temporally distributed modeling of landslide susceptibility, Geomorphology, 80, 178-198. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2006.02.011
21
Griffiths, D.V., Huang, J.S., Fenton, G.A., 2011, Probabilistic infinite slope analysis, Computers and Geotechnics, 38, 577-584. 10.1016/j.compgeo.2011.03.006
22
Guimaraes, R.F., Montgomery, D.R., Greenberg, H.M., Fernandes, N.F., Gomes, R.A.T., de Carvalho, O.A., 2003, Parameterization of soil properties for a model of topographic controls on shallow landsliding: Application to Rio de Janeiro, Engineering Geology, 69, 99-108. 10.1016/S0013-7952(02)00263-6
23
Harr, M.E., 1987, Reliability-based design in civil engineering, McGrawHill, New York, 291p.
24
Ho, J.Y., Lee, K.T., Chang, T.C., Wang, Z.Y., Liao, Y.H., 2012, Influences of spatial distribution of soil thickness on shallow landslide prediction, Engineering Geology, 124, 38-46. 10.1016/j.enggeo.2011.09.013
25
Huang, J.C., Kao, S.J., 2006, Optimal estimator for assessing landslide model performance, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 10(6), 957-965. 10.5194/hess-10-957-2006
26
Huang, J.C., Kao, S.J., Hsu, M.L., Lin, J.C., 2006, Stochastic procedure to extract and to integrate landslide susceptibility maps: An example of mountainous watershed in Taiwan, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 6, 803-815. 10.5194/nhess-6-803-2006
27
Huang, J.C., Kao, S.J., Hsu, M.L., Liu, Y.A., 2007, Influence of specific contributing area algorithms on slope failure prediction in landslide modeling, Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 7, 781-792. 10.5194/nhess-7-781-2007
28
Iverson, R.M., 2000, Landslide triggering by rain infiltration, Water Resources Research, 36, 1897-1910. 10.1029/2000WR900090
29
Kamai, T., 1991, Slope stability assessment by using GIS, Research report, Science and Technology Agency of Japan (1986-1988) (in Japanese Report).
30
Kim, M.S., Onda, Y., Uchida, T., Kim, J.K., 2016, Effects of soil depth and subsurface flow along the subsurface topography on shallow landslide predictions at the site of a small granitic hillslope, Geomorphology, 271, 40-54. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.07.031
31
Lacasse, S., Nadim, F., 2009, Landslide risk assessment and mitigation strategy, In: Sassa, K., Canuti, P. (Eds.), Landslides - disaster risk reduction, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 31-61. 10.1007/978-3-540-69970-5_3
32
Lee, J.H., Park, H.J., 2016, Assessment of shallow landslide susceptibility using the transient infiltration flow model and GIS-based probabilistic approach, Landslides, 13, 885-903. 10.1007/s10346-015-0646-6
33
Liao, Z., Hong, Y., Kirschbaum, D., Adler, R.F., Gourley, J.J., Wooten, R., 2011, Evaluation of TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis)’s predictive skill for hurricane-triggered landslides: A case study in Macon County, North Carolina, Natural Hazards, 58, 325-339. 10.1007/s11069-010-9670-y
34
Listo, F.D.L.R., Vieira, B.C., 2012, Mapping of risk and susceptibility of shallow-landslide in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, Geomorphology, 169, 30-44. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2012.01.010
35
Liu, C.N., Wu, C.C., 2008, Mapping susceptibility of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides using a probabilistic approach, Environmental Geology, 55, 907-915. 10.1007/s00254-007-1042-x
36
Luzi, L., Pergalani, F., 1996, Applications of statistical and GIS techniques to slope instability zonation (1:50,000 Fabriano geological map sheet), Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 15, 83-94. 10.1016/0267-7261(95)00031-3
37
Marin, R.J., Mattos, Á.J., 2020, Physically-based landslide susceptibility analysis using Monte Carlo simulation in a tropical mountain basin, Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards, 14, 192-205. 10.1080/17499518.2019.1633582
38
Meisina, C., Scarabelli, S., 2007, A comparative analysis of terrain stability models for predicting shallow landslides in colluvial soils, Geomorphology, 87, 207-223. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2006.03.039
39
Montgomery, D.R., Dietrich, W.E., 1994, A physically based model for the topographic control on shallow landsliding, Water Resources Research, 30, 1153-1171. 10.1029/93WR02979
40
O’Loughlin, E.M., 1986, Prediction of surface saturation zones in natural catchments by topographic analysis, Water Resources Research, 22, 794-804. 10.1029/WR022i005p00794
41
Pack, R.T., Tarboton, D.G., Goodwin, C.N., 1998, The SINMAP approach to terrain stability mapping, Proceedings of the 8th Congress of the International Association of Engineering Geology, Vancouver, 1157-1165.
42
Pack, R.T., Tarboton, D.G., Goodwin, C.N., 2001, Assessing terrain stability in a GIS using SINMAP, Proceedings of the 15th Annual GIS Conference (GIS 2001), Vancouver, No. 2578.
43
Park, H.J., Jang, J.Y., Lee, J.H., 2019, Assessment of rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility at the regional scale using a physically based model and fuzzy-based Monte Carlo simulation, Landslides, 16, 695-713. 10.1007/s10346-018-01125-z
44
Park, H.J., Lee, J.H., Woo, I., 2013, Assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility using a GIS-based probabilistic approach, Engineering Geology, 161, 1-15. 10.1016/j.enggeo.2013.04.011
45
Park, H.J., West, T.R., 2001, Development of a probabilistic approach for rock wedge failure, Engineering Geology, 59, 233-251. 10.1016/S0013-7952(00)00076-4
46
Pradhan, A.M.S., Kim, Y.T., 2015, Application and comparison of shallow landslide susceptibility models in weathered granite soil under extreme rainfall events, Environmental Earth Sciences, 73, 5761-5771. 10.1007/s12665-014-3829-x
47
Raia, S., Alvioli, M., Rossi, M., Baum, R.L., Godt, J.W., Guzzetti, F., 2014, Improving predictive power of physically based rainfall-induced shallow landslide models: A probabilistic approach, Geoscientific Model Development, 7, 495-514. 10.5194/gmd-7-495-2014
48
Rossi, G., Catani, F., Leoni, L., Segoni, S., Tofani, V., 2013, HIRESSS: A physically based slope stability simulator for HPC applications, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13, 151. 10.5194/nhess-13-151-2013
49
Rosso, R., Rulli, M.C., Vannucchi, G., 2006, A physically based model for the hydrologic control on shallow landsliding, Water Resources Research, 42, W06410, doi:10.1029/2005WR004369. 10.1029/2005WR004369
50
Salciarini, D., Fanelli, G., Tamagnini, C., 2017, A probabilistic model for rainfall-induced shallow landslide prediction at the regional scale, Landslides, 14, 1731-1746. 10.1007/s10346-017-0812-0
51
Salciarini, D., Godt, J.W., Savage, W.Z., Conversini, P., Baum, R.L., Michael, J.A., 2006, Modeling regional initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy, Landslides, 3, 181-194. 10.1007/s10346-006-0037-0
52
Santoso, A.M., Phoon, K.K., Quek, S.T., 2011, Effects of soil spatial variability on rainfall-induced landslides, Computers and Structures, 89, 893-900. 10.1016/j.compstruc.2011.02.016
53
Savage, W.Z., Godt, J.W., Baum, R.L., 2004, Modeling time dependent areal slope stability, Proceedings of the 9th International Symposium on Landslides, Rio de Janeiro, 23-36. 10.1201/b16816-4
54
Shou, K.J., Chen, Y.L., 2005, Spatial risk analysis of Li-shan landslide in Taiwan, Engineering Geology, 80, 199-213. 10.1016/j.enggeo.2005.05.002
55
Shou, K.J., Chen, Y.L., Liu, H., 2009, Hazard analysis of Li-shanlandslide in Taiwan, Geomorphology, 103, 143-153. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.09.017
56
Sorbino, G., Sica, C., Cascini, L., 2010, Susceptibility analysis of shallow landslides source areas using physically based models, Natural Hazards, 53, 313-332. 10.1007/s11069-009-9431-y
57
Sorbino, G., Sica, C., Cascini, L., Cuomo, S., 2007, On the forecasting of flowslide triggering areas using physically based models, Proceedings of the 1st North American Landslides Conference on Landslides, Vail, 305-315.
58
Terhorst, B., Kreja, R., 2009, Slope stability modelling with SINMAPin a settlement area of the Swabian Alb, Landslides, 6, 309-319. 10.1007/s10346-009-0167-2
59
Terlien, M.T.J., 1996, Modelling spatial and temporal variations in rainfall-triggered landslides, International Institute for Aerospace and Earth Sciences (ITC), Enschede, Netherlands, Publication No. 32.
60
Terlien, M.T.J., van Westen, C.J., van Asch, T.W., 1995, Deterministic modelling in GIS-based landslide hazard assessment, In: Carrara, A., Guzzetti, F. (Eds.), Geographical Information Systems in Assessing Natural Hazards, Springer Netherlands, p. 57-77. 10.1007/978-94-015-8404-3_4
61
Tsai, T.L., Tsai, P.Y., Yang, P.J., 2015, Probabilistic modelling of rainfall-induced shallow landslide using a point estimate method, Environmental Earth Sciences, 73, 4109-4117. 10.1007/s12665-014-3696-5
62
van Westen, C.J., Seijmonsbergen, A.C., Mantovani, F., 1999, Comparing landslide hazard maps, Natural Hazards, 20, 137-158. 10.1023/A:1008036810401
63
van Westen, C.J., Terlien, M.T.J., 1996, An approach towards deterministic landslide hazard analysis in GIS, A case study from Manizales (Colombia), Earth Surface Processes, 21, 853-868. 10.1002/(SICI)1096-9837(199609)21:9<853::AID-ESP676>3.0.CO;2-C
64
Vieira, B.C., Fernandes, N.F., Augusto Filho, O., Martins, T.D., Montgomery, D.R., 2018, Assessing shallow landslide hazards using the TRIGRS and SHALSTAB models, Serra do Mar, Brazil, Environmental earth sciences, 77, 1-15. 10.1007/s12665-018-7436-0
65
Wu, W., Sidle, R.C., 1995, A distributed slope stability model for steep forested basins, Water Resources Research, 31, 2097-2110. 10.1029/95WR01136
66
Xie, M., Esaki, T., Zhou, G., 2004, GIS-based probabilistic mapping of landslide hazard using a three-dimensional deterministic model, Natural Hazards, 33, 265-282. 10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000037036.01850.0d
67
Yilmaz, I., Keskin, I., 2009, GIS based statistical and physicalapproaches to landslide susceptibility mapping (Sebinkarahisar, Turkey), Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 68,459-471. 10.1007/s10064-009-0188-z
68
Zhou, G., Esaki, T., Mitani, Y., Xie, M., Mori, J., 2003, Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using an integrated GIS Monte Carlo simulation approach, Engineering Geology, 68, 373-386. 10.1016/S0013-7952(02)00241-7
69
Zizioli, D., Meisina, C., Valentino, R., Montrasio, L., 2013, Comparison between different approaches to modeling shallow landslide susceptibility: A case history in Oltrepo Pavese, Northern Italy, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13, 559. 10.5194/nhess-13-559-2013
Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Engineering Geology
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한지질공학회
  • Journal Title :The Journal of Engineering Geology
  • Journal Title(Ko) :지질공학
  • Volume : 32
  • No :1
  • Pages :27-40
  • Received Date :2022. 03. 08
  • Accepted Date : 2022. 03. 21
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.9720/kseg.2022.1.027
Journal Informaiton The Journal of Engineering Geology The Journal of Engineering Geology
Online Submission
  • NRF
  • KOFST
  • KISTI Current Status
  • KISTI Cited-by
  • crosscheck
  • orcid
  • open access
  • ccl
Journal Informaiton Journal Informaiton - close